Last Friday, unknown traders placed colossal bets on the price of oil falling - right in the middle of the largest oil price shock in decades, because of a war that only days prior the President of the United States said could “end a whole civilization.”
Those bets were shorts - $760 million worth - and they were placed a mere 21 minutes before the Iranian Foreign Minister declared that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial traffic. The price of oil plunged within minutes, with Brent crude falling 9%, and US-sourced WTI falling over 11%. The shorts were either massively lucky - or they were an insider trading conspiracy.
This is nothing new - insider trading has become so ubiquitous among US political and financial elites it is hardly even news, and Trump’s second presidency has seen it reach such absurd levels it’s hardly worth the effort to shake your head in disapproval. But this time was different - Iran had the initiative in Friday’s major announcement.
So either US elites knew what would happen from communication with Iran moments prior (which is very likely) - or, in a more exciting twist, insiders connected to the Iranian regime are tearing a page from the US’s playbook, and raking in some cash “betting” on war events they too have the power to dictate. Is this what’s happening?
Even if it is, while Iran has proven itself to be a highly capable adversary against both the US and Israel, they may be winning the battles but losing the war. Neither the US or Israel has achieved a single one of their poorly defined goals in the war against Iran, and while Iran has been bruised by massive attacks on their infrastructure, their regime is stronger than ever, the US has been embarrassed on the world stage, and Iran is emerging as one of the most respected countries in the world.
But as it turns out, emboldening Iran and provoking them into shutting down the Strait of Hormuz may have actually been the plan all along. Both Israeli and US intelligence analysts were aware that Iran had both the means and the willingness to shut down the Strait if they were attacked - and yet the attack was still carried out.
Could this be because getting Iran to shut down this critical energy source for much of Asia and Europe is exactly what the US/Israel Axis wanted?
I have a theory that this is exactly the case, and I lay it out in this video. If I’m right, while the next year or two will be very hard on Europe and Asia (especially China), but at the end of it all, the Strait of Hormuz will lose its relevance, and Israel will become the Eastern Hemisphere’s main fueling station for decades to come.
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